It’s been a little tricky keeping up with the changing policies coming from the White House. Lately, there’s been some good news, including the pendulum swing of tariffs going in our industry’s direction and the passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act in the House.
Let’s start with tariffs and their effect on restaurants catering to fish lovers.
The uncertainty of tariffs and the associated price increases have been ongoing topics in the restaurant industry. Those serving an abundance of seafood have been particularly hard hit, with about 94% of it coming from overseas. The National Fisheries Institute reports that the most popular seafood products in the United States, such as shrimp, salmon, tilapia, and canned tuna, are expected to see increasing prices.
The tariff looming over seafood costs includes the pending 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam and the previous 125% tariff on imports from China. What complicates matters further is that fish caught from everywhere in the world, including the U.S., are frequently shipped to China for skinning, boning, and filleting.
The good news: As of May 14, 2025, all imports from China were reduced to the baseline 10% for 90 days. The existing 20% “fentanyl” tariffs bring China’s tariffs to about 30%. Vietnam is also under negotiations. According to Reuters, the Vietnamese Trade Ministry released a statement following a meeting, suggesting that both countries are committed to fostering a stable economic, trade, and investment relationship. The administration is also lowering UK tariffs.
So, what does that mean for restaurants?
Seafood Tariffs and Restaurants
Seafood chains were under pressure even before Trump’s tariffs took hold. We are all familiar with Red Lobster, which experienced a sales decline of over 20% in 2024. According to Technomic, as reported by Nation’s Restaurant News, 21 additional seafood chains saw a 1.6% decline in sales compared to 2023. The restaurant industry, however, saw a 3% increase.
While numerous chains saw a slide in sales, including Bonefish Grill, McCormick & Schmick’s, and Long John Silver’s, some made substantial gains. Legal Sea Foods and Hook & Reel showed a 10% sales increase.
DC News Now reported on Today’s Crab House in Maryland. Popular for its seafood offerings, owner John Lee found that prices were escalating due to tariffs, with shrimp increasing by 20% and crab prices following suit. Faced with the option of reducing portions or raising prices, he opted to retain the size of the meals as their customers have come to expect and raise the prices. Lee hopes to lower them as the tariffs decrease.
The Benefits of The One Big Beautiful Bill
In a statement released by the National Restaurant Association regarding the passage of this bill in the House, Michelle Korsmo, CEO and President, said, “This legislation is a major victory for restaurant owners, employees, and the communities they serve.”
Two of the main provisions affecting restaurant employees are the exemption from tax on tips and overtime. Employers benefit from the 199A-qualified business income deduction, full expensing of capital investments, and the reinstatement of depreciation and amortization when calculating business interest expenses.
According to Korsmo, these measures enable businesses to maintain working capital, cover payroll, and manage rising costs. According to President Trump, it’s “arguably the most significant piece of legislation that will ever be signed in the history of our country!”
The Importance of Diversifying
In the restaurant industry and most businesses, diversifying is critical for long-term success. It protects against the volatility of an uncertain supply chain and changing consumer preferences. It puts options on the table when turbulence erupts, mitigating risks.
The first step in reducing risks is to examine your menu and reduce inventory requirements, focusing on seasonal and locally sourced ingredients. Explore alternative sourcing options and establish long-term relationships with suppliers that support you in making informed decisions during periods of cost fluctuations.
Consider additional revenue streams such as catering, leaning into takeout, and meal subscription services to support your business during traffic slowdowns. Keep a close eye on figures when raising prices to ensure the increases aren’t affecting customer demand. Restaurants can maintain margins by sourcing locally and optimizing operations. If this sounds familiar, it’s the same playbook restaurants used when surviving the pandemic.
